Zambia’s Eastern Province is highly exposed to drought, and climate change is expected to intensify both the frequency and severity of drought impacts in the coming decades.

This document presents a quantitative assessment of future drought risks and evaluates adaptation pathways that can reduce economic losses, protect livelihoods, and strengthen food security under moderate (RCP 4.5) and severe (RCP 8.5) climate change scenarios. By combining climate risk modelling with an economic evaluation of adaptation measures under different budget scenarios, the analysis moves beyond qualitative vulnerability assessments and offers an evidence-based foundation for adaptation planning, investment prioritization, and policy development at the provincial level.

The drought risk assessment shows that maize and cattle are the most vulnerable and economically significant assets in the Eastern Province. Maize dominates projected crop losses due to its large cultivation area and sensitivity to rainfall variability, while cattle losses reflect both high asset values and exposure to water and feed shortages during drought years. Under future climate conditions—particularly under RCP 8.5—drought-related damages increase substantially in the absence of adaptation, translating into higher food insecurity, income losses, and stress on rural livelihoods. These risks underscore the urgency of proactive adaptation.

To address these challenges, the analysis assesses three adaptation pathways: Effectiveness, Improving Food Security, and Green Sustainable Future. Each pathway represents a distinct policy focus and protects different assets. The Effectiveness Pathway delivers the largest and most immediate reductions in drought damages, particularly for cattle and maize, and performs strongly even under limited domestic budgets. The Food Security Pathway focuses on protecting people by reducing drought-induced food insecurity through early warning systems and climate information services, post-harvest storage, and nutrition-sensitive measures. The Green Sustainable Future Pathway is largely crop-focused, with benefits concentrated on maize and other key crops, and emphasizes long-term resilience through climate-smart agriculture, agroforestry, and drought-tolerant crop varieties.

Across all pathways and climate scenarios, the results show that adaptation investments consistently reduce drought damages and protect people. Higher budgets lead to higher absolute benefits, with international investment scenarios enabling large-scale reductions in crop and livestock losses. At the same time, domestic investments often achieve higher benefit–cost ratios, demonstrating that even relatively small national budgets can deliver significant outcomes when targeted to high-risk assets and districts. This finding highlights that adaptation can—and should—begin sooner rather than later, without waiting for large-scale external finance.

Overall, this document indicates that drought risk in the Eastern Province is increasing; however, targeted adaptation can mitigate some of the damage, depending on the budget allocated. No single pathway dominates across all objectives; instead, pathway choice should be guided by policy priorities—whether protecting high-value assets, reducing food insecurity, or building long-term crop resilience. The pathway-based approach employed in the analysis serves as a starting point for adaptation planning, providing quantified estimates of damages avoided and people protected that can inform district agricultural plans, national policy processes, and climate finance applications. By acting early, targeting investments strategically, and scaling up successful measures over time, the Eastern Province can significantly reduce drought impacts and strengthen resilience under a changing climate.