The Southern Province is among the regions of Zambia most exposed to drought, with climate change projected to intensify both the frequency and severity of dry conditions in the coming decades.

This document provides a quantitative, forward-looking assessment of drought risks and adaptation options for the Southern Province under moderate (RCP 4.5) and severe (RCP 8.5) climate change scenarios. By combining climate risk modelling with an economic evaluation of adaptation measures under different budget scenarios, the analysis moves beyond qualitative vulnerability assessments and offers an evidence-based foundation for adaptation planning, investment prioritization, and policy development at the provincial level.

The drought risk assessment confirms that drought is not a temporary or episodic shock in Southern Province, but a growing structural risk that threatens agricultural production, livestock assets, food security, and rural livelihoods. Maize emerges as the most vulnerable crop due to its sensitivity to rainfall variability and its central role in food systems and household income. Livestock—particularly cattle—also face substantial drought-related risks through pasture shortages, water scarcity, and heat stress. Under severe climate change conditions (RCP 8.5), drought-related damages to both crops and livestock are projected to increase significantly in the absence of adaptation, with far-reaching implications for economic stability and food security.

To assess how these risks can be reduced, the report evaluates three adaptation pathways—Effectiveness, Improving Food Security, and Green Sustainable Future—each reflecting a distinct policy objective and adaptation logic. These pathways were selected not as prescriptive solutions, but as strategic options to support decision-making. Together, they illustrate how different combinations of measures translate into different protection outcomes for crops, livestock, and people.

The analysis shows that adaptation investments can substantially reduce drought-related damages across all climate scenarios. The Effectiveness Pathway provides the strongest protection for high-value assets, particularly livestock, and generates considerable benefits in terms of avoided economic losses under both domestic and international budgets. The Improving Food Security Pathway focuses on reducing drought-induced food insecurity, protecting both crops and livestock while delivering strong social and nutrition benefits through measures such as early warning systems, climate information services, post-harvest management, and nutrition-sensitive interventions. The Green Sustainable Future Pathway emphasizes long-term resilience through climate-smart agriculture and nature-based solutions, protecting staple crop production and large numbers of people over time.

A key finding across all pathways is that the scale of investment matters. Higher budgets lead to higher absolute adaptation benefits, allowing interventions to be expanded across more districts, households, and production systems. International financing scenarios unlock particularly large reductions in drought damages and food insecurity. At the same time, the results clearly demonstrate that domestic investments already deliver strong returns, with high benefit–cost ratios for many measures. This means that effective adaptation can begin immediately, even with limited national resources, when investments are well targeted toward high-risk assets and vulnerable areas.

The comparison of climate change scenarios further reinforces the case for early and sustained adaptation. While some measures yield moderate benefits under RCP 4.5, their effectiveness increases markedly under RCP 8.5, when droughts become more frequent and severe. Planning for future climate extremes is therefore essential to avoid escalating losses and lock-in of vulnerability.

Overall, this document conveys a clear and positive message for Southern Province: although drought risks are increasing, effective adaptation measures can successfully reduce drought damages. Targeted adaptation investments can reduce economic losses, protect livelihoods, and strengthen food security under all climate scenarios. The pathway-based framework presented here offers a practical tool for aligning adaptation investments with policy priorities and available budgets. By using this assessment as a foundation for planning, feasibility studies, and climate finance mobilization, the Southern Province can move decisively from risk analysis to implementation—building resilience, safeguarding livelihoods, and preparing for a drier future.